Joseph created a great wagon wheel of charts that, together, help gather an organize the chaos of day-to-day economic updates. Thanks (as usual) for organizing my uncertainty!
Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Why do you not even mention money supply, IOER, or NGDP? If we contain NGDP, we contain inflation. Containing NGDP means containing monetary variables, as amplified by fiscal policy. It's pretty simple. I understand if you think this framework is bogus, but why not take the time to refute it?
In short, my base case is that US stock indexes will see lower lows before the current cyclical bear market is over; perhaps seeing a new leg down as early as Q1.23. However at some point in the year, on the back of what will eventually be a slightly more dovish Fed narrative and a potential washout of bearish sentiment, stocks may begin a multi-month cyclical bull market rally, perhaps lasting into 2024 with a commodities bull market that could last quite a bit longer.
Joseph created a great wagon wheel of charts that, together, help gather an organize the chaos of day-to-day economic updates. Thanks (as usual) for organizing my uncertainty!
Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Why do you not even mention money supply, IOER, or NGDP? If we contain NGDP, we contain inflation. Containing NGDP means containing monetary variables, as amplified by fiscal policy. It's pretty simple. I understand if you think this framework is bogus, but why not take the time to refute it?
On the topic of the supply chain,:one crucial link, transport, is showiing mixed messages according to S&P, I charted them here: https://econtwitter.net/@J_F_X9/109535220645725929
Nice read. Just curious how do you make those pretty charts?
Nice work Joseph! This is my take:
In short, my base case is that US stock indexes will see lower lows before the current cyclical bear market is over; perhaps seeing a new leg down as early as Q1.23. However at some point in the year, on the back of what will eventually be a slightly more dovish Fed narrative and a potential washout of bearish sentiment, stocks may begin a multi-month cyclical bull market rally, perhaps lasting into 2024 with a commodities bull market that could last quite a bit longer.
https://finiche.substack.com/p/market-minutes-and-portfolio-update
Cheer!
F.