Absolutely not. The last 25bps were an attempt to save face imo. There’s no way other banks aren’t in trouble and further banking centralization is dangerous.
That said, they’re kind of stuck between a rock and hard place.
But is that really true for most banks nowadays? Every bank loan I've gotten has been floating rate. So the interest income to the banks rose right along with the Fed funds rate, and the change in market value of the loan was unrelated to the rise in long-term rates.
Not a banking expert but why do banks allow accounts to exceed the FDIC maximum? Why not create multiple accounts. Everyone's insured and these panic situations are less likely to occur. Seems pretty simple but what do I know?
Thank you for using your expertise to find and present relevant facts and background in a balanced, coherent discussion. As you do in the penultimate section, one questions what (if anything) the situation at First Republic and other data reveal about the US banking sector and economy more broadly.
Terrific review of banks, banking business and how easily things can roll off of a cliff. Thanks Joseph for wonderful insight into this.
The only question is what will be the next domino.
Well done and great work on the charts. Subbed. Dovetails nicely with this: https://open.substack.com/pub/tradestreet/p/is-the-dollar-doomed-part-1?r=2cgxwn&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Great review of the banking business. I loved the article!
If the Fed takes over FRC, SHOULD they raise rates on Wednesday?
Absolutely not. The last 25bps were an attempt to save face imo. There’s no way other banks aren’t in trouble and further banking centralization is dangerous.
That said, they’re kind of stuck between a rock and hard place.
Excellent analysis! Update: JPMorgan bought First Republic Bank!
Back in 2016 I interviewed w/ First Republic Private Wealth Management at their SF office.
I remember the interviewer was *very interested* in where I was going to live… (Coming from Sacramento)
My response? “I hope you would pay me enough to afford to live in the city”
Didn’t get the job…
Borrow short, lend long.
But is that really true for most banks nowadays? Every bank loan I've gotten has been floating rate. So the interest income to the banks rose right along with the Fed funds rate, and the change in market value of the loan was unrelated to the rise in long-term rates.
Not a banking expert but why do banks allow accounts to exceed the FDIC maximum? Why not create multiple accounts. Everyone's insured and these panic situations are less likely to occur. Seems pretty simple but what do I know?
FDIC insurance limits are per customer, not per account.
Thank you for using your expertise to find and present relevant facts and background in a balanced, coherent discussion. As you do in the penultimate section, one questions what (if anything) the situation at First Republic and other data reveal about the US banking sector and economy more broadly.
After its earnings report, it was 100% dead bank walking.
I suppose we will see capital controls on interbank money movements soon.
And right on time....