16 Comments
Jul 5, 2023Liked by Joseph Politano

Thanks for the fantastic writeup Joey!

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author

Thank you! So glad you enjoyed

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Jul 6, 2023Liked by Joseph Politano

Great piece!

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Thanks Daniyal!

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Feb 22Liked by Joseph Politano

Hi Joseph,

thank you for your excellent article. Could you give me a hint how you did the

import from GACC *.xls with its HS-Codes

to x13-ARIMA?

That would be very helpful for me.

Best regards

Axel Bangert

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Hi Axel—this process is definitely a bit difficult and more than a little time consuming. First I had to download the monthly China trade data (including Hong Kong) as excel spreadsheets and convert them into CSVs. Then I used R code to adjust for double-counting and make the x13-ARIMA adjustments using the seasonal package to adjust the raw non-seasonally numbers from the CSVs into the seasonally-adjusted final product. You can look at the code and the spreadsheets here if you want (https://github.com/Miles-byte/Apricitas/tree/main/Chip%20War)—let me know if that's helpful for you.

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...thanks for your helpful answer...it's not too easy ... I'll try to understand the Github stuff despite my "Alzheimer's" ... (70+) ... ... in GACC 84861-84864 HS-Code are semiconductor relevant commodities ... in your different csv(s) I can find 8486 ... so I guess that you used the chinese HS-Code for some kind of data normalization ... ... a whole lot of work ... ... then you use those csv in R-Code ... for plotting and saving ... e.g.: "China HK Chips.png" ... ... I guess that the ... appId = "6660597ae9d52f54c4d20dcbb12244c873615203" ... is for x-13ARIMA ... but I really do not yet understand how that part works ... :) :) :)

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Jul 7, 2023Liked by Joseph Politano

great stuff!

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Thanks Concoda! Super glad you enjoyed

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Chips, multiple chip types, multiple source countries and same for chip equipment made this difficult to follow.

Seems like a difficult trade war to coordinate far less to win. Will substantial disruption be satisfying enough for USA?

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RFK Jr remarks that Xi Jinping has adopted his uncle JDK's playbook (The Peace Corps) with his Belt and Road initiative. It's a pity that the US has a dog in the manger attitude to the advancement of human welfare. Trump did some good things but this wasn't one of them.

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According to legal documents disclosed Tuesday, Sharon Bush's lawyers questioned Neil Bush closely about the deals, especially a contract with Grace Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp., a firm backed by Jiang Mianheng, the son of former Chinese President Jiang Zemin, that would pay him $2 million in stock over five years.

Marshall Davis Brown, lawyer for Sharon Bush, expressed bewilderment at why Grace would want Bush and at such a high price since he knew little about the semiconductor business.

"You have absolutely no educational background in semiconductors do you?" asked Brown.

"That's correct," Bush, 48, responded in the March 4 deposition, a transcript of which was read by Reuters after the Houston Chronicle first reported on the documents.

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All hail The Guru (praise be his name)

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An intereresting but too US centric point of view

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Chip shortage to chip glut! How times change, and in a matter of months. This is an excellent piece on an increasingly important subject. But there is one point that stands out and that has to do with the chip manufacturing equipment; interesting that the "n.e.c.", or "Not elsewhere classified" tag is given to this equipment for domestic US business. Great way to stay hidden, or in fact call attention to itself.

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Given the complexities of global semiconductor supply chains and the potential pushback from American allies, what do you think how might the US effectively convince its partners to join its strategy of economic and industrial statecraft against China?

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