Well done. Having just returned from the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings, the focus on core data is refreshing. You might also like reading this: https://monetary policy volatility.substack.com
Thanks for the analysis Joseph great stuff as usual. What do you make of the argument the decline in ahe is about compositional shifts (more lower paid jobs in services being created) so the decline in wages (and therefore inflationary pressure in labour intensive services) is overstated? Atlanta fed wage tracker, which is composition adjusted, is still high, for example.
I liked that you are looking positively at the situation with the decline in inflation in the United States. I think your analysis and conclusions are very valid.
It does seem promising, especially on the PPI end of things, but also I'm noticing a trend of "as long as wage demand inflation decreases", which I'm not certain is a winning prospect. I'd reckon, at least intuitively and without having done much research, that wages are even stickier than CPI inflation, and that our wage increases have been both 1) long overdue and still not up to par with even inflation since 1990, and 2) barring a deep, painful recession, not going to recede.
Brilliant post👌🏼 Any thoughts on how the potential "mild recession" might impact the disinflationary process. Additionally, considering the current global economic landscape, do you think any external factors could influence the pace of disinflation in the US?
New to the newsletter and really enjoying it. Thanks and great insight!!
Great post Joey! Love your newsletter.
Well done. Having just returned from the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings, the focus on core data is refreshing. You might also like reading this: https://monetary policy volatility.substack.com
Thanks for the analysis Joseph great stuff as usual. What do you make of the argument the decline in ahe is about compositional shifts (more lower paid jobs in services being created) so the decline in wages (and therefore inflationary pressure in labour intensive services) is overstated? Atlanta fed wage tracker, which is composition adjusted, is still high, for example.
Great informative read. Perfect balance between all the nice visualisations and text.
I liked that you are looking positively at the situation with the decline in inflation in the United States. I think your analysis and conclusions are very valid.
It does seem promising, especially on the PPI end of things, but also I'm noticing a trend of "as long as wage demand inflation decreases", which I'm not certain is a winning prospect. I'd reckon, at least intuitively and without having done much research, that wages are even stickier than CPI inflation, and that our wage increases have been both 1) long overdue and still not up to par with even inflation since 1990, and 2) barring a deep, painful recession, not going to recede.
Thanks Joseph! One question - wasn’t the peak CPI at 9.1% in June 2022? Am I looking at a different series?
Brilliant post👌🏼 Any thoughts on how the potential "mild recession" might impact the disinflationary process. Additionally, considering the current global economic landscape, do you think any external factors could influence the pace of disinflation in the US?