Super insightful. I’ve been challenging those who still like to place sole blame of the labor shortage on the unemployment checks people got during the pandemic “they’re getting paid not to work.” Yet they couldn’t offer an explanation for non-service/low wage labor shortages. Fair to give them some grace in that this data is now just available to be digested.
3 additional causes to consider (I cannot find statistics as neatly summarized as those you presented) -
1) change in unemployment benefits ($ paid, # claims)
2) change in disability benefits ($ paid, # claims)
3) change in early retirement (# claims of social security at age 62 vs waiting to age 65)
I’m not suggesting these are THE causes, but I suspect they contribute. Maybe there are other causes? Most of society cannot afford to simply “stop working” but for an abnormally large segment that’s what happened in ‘20 - ‘22.
Terrific review of labor and its impact on inflation and workers. Thanks Joseph
Thanks Robert!
Super insightful. I’ve been challenging those who still like to place sole blame of the labor shortage on the unemployment checks people got during the pandemic “they’re getting paid not to work.” Yet they couldn’t offer an explanation for non-service/low wage labor shortages. Fair to give them some grace in that this data is now just available to be digested.
Great review and summary.
3 additional causes to consider (I cannot find statistics as neatly summarized as those you presented) -
1) change in unemployment benefits ($ paid, # claims)
2) change in disability benefits ($ paid, # claims)
3) change in early retirement (# claims of social security at age 62 vs waiting to age 65)
I’m not suggesting these are THE causes, but I suspect they contribute. Maybe there are other causes? Most of society cannot afford to simply “stop working” but for an abnormally large segment that’s what happened in ‘20 - ‘22.
Happy new year. I enjoy your substack.
Excellent read! You might like my thoughts going into 2023.
https://finiche.substack.com/p/the-big-portfolio-refresh-202301
Cheers!
F.