It Can't Quite Predict Recessions, but it Might Help You Understand the Stance of Monetary Policy
Increadible read, better and in much greater detail than any textbook or trader ever explained it to me!
Thanks especially for mentioning the yield curve as a predictor in countries outside the US. I've been looking at the UK 2s10s for a while, but that seems to be a bit of a futile exercise.
Hey Joey - thanks for the post.
Do you have any more resources on the short-term rate vol impact on long term bond yields outside of Emanuel’s tweet? Wondering if this is part of the effect, why it may be impacting 2yr more than longer maturities. I have some ideas, but any more reading you’ve come across on this would be super interesting.