Indeed, the “deal” with the UK is merely a “deal to work out a deal.” So far, Trump’s “trade wars are good annd easy to win” record is about 0 for 90. Ninety being approximately the number of nations on which Trump imposed tariffs April 4. Any team with that kind of record would see its manager fired.
it is not clear to me how you adjust your trade numbers to account for changes in the supply lines or the elimination of demand,, such as deferral of luxury or non essential items.
National security reasons is what the Biden admin would cite. A strong, but not economically harmful posture against China was their position. And protection of advanced tech, on which we levied tariffs toward even allies like Europe.
Good points. Trump is beginning to appear more interested in the tariff tax revenues, rather than his economically illiterate premise that it would increase U.S. manufacturing (without cost), given the significant increase in deficits and national debt that his recent bill brings on. In other words, we now face the risk that Trump, not fully understanding the deleterious impact of a trade war, but being slapped in the face by the markets after "liberation day", may shift his rhetoric to emphasize how "rich" we are becoming from the revenue (to save face).
I'm for free trade, yet theory shows that "Harberger triangles," the actual welfare losses due to tariffs because of import substitution, are small, unless tariff rates get very high.
The uncertainty could be worse than the inefficiency. This looks like a bad time for business investment. And yet It might be a bad time anyway, because of uncertainty related to AI. Should all tools now have a button to activate an AI that can explain how to use them? If we don't know whether they should, or we don't know how to do that yet, maybe we shouldn't be investing in tools until we know.
For the moment, I'm weirdly optimistic that the US economy can weather too much long-term damage.
Obviously the collapse in imports was the ostensible rationale for Trump tariffs (plus tariff revenue … which of course will now collapse along with imports … which reminds me, do gold imports bear a tariff too?) while the decline in exports was unwelcome, since the deal was supposed to make tariffs one-way (which was a silly thought). Meanwhile it’s a bit weird to scan economic data that is just about to catch up with “Liberation Day”.
Would be great to see up top, just total imports and total exports on a line graph. Do the dollar figures in these graphs depict pre-tariff or post tariff spending/receipts? (IOW spending including or not including tariff fees.) Thanks.
I would really love to hear a more detailed look on how tariffs are directly impacting the cost of living in the states themselves. So far this is of course atrocious long-term and will not achieve any of the so-called "goals" of these voodoo economic measures, but proponents can still look at the data and tell "well yeah, but USA has been ripped off all these years, now the money will flow!". Imports have fallen, but some will be present and will be paid into USA treasury. It would be great to see some data to prove that these incomes are not real incomes into the economy but instead money that will be directly taken from the public in one way or another to fill the treasury from the "tariffs"
Joey, i am wondering why tariffs have not crept into inflation data yet. Also, what happened with shipping traffic situation? The drop in imports should've translated into shortages on shelves by now.
tRump doesn’t know the first thing about tariffs!! He is just fuckn around with this!! He’s worsening our economy!! I just wish he would leave this shit alone!! The tariffs aren’t working!! I guess he’s that stupid to believe that this shit is working!! God, he’s a dumbass!!
Indeed, the “deal” with the UK is merely a “deal to work out a deal.” So far, Trump’s “trade wars are good annd easy to win” record is about 0 for 90. Ninety being approximately the number of nations on which Trump imposed tariffs April 4. Any team with that kind of record would see its manager fired.
So why has he not been fired??
Next post should be why these substack comments are so bad
They still haven’t gotten rid of the tariff taxes on the penguins.
it is not clear to me how you adjust your trade numbers to account for changes in the supply lines or the elimination of demand,, such as deferral of luxury or non essential items.
Why did President Biden renew President´s Trumps initial tariffs ? Are tariffs just oficial US policy?
National security reasons is what the Biden admin would cite. A strong, but not economically harmful posture against China was their position. And protection of advanced tech, on which we levied tariffs toward even allies like Europe.
This is wrong. The US made around $40 billion Dollars each month so far in tariff money. Climate Change Science is never settled
The wildfires are arson, not from climate change: https://cctruth.org/wildfire/
https://rcmp.ca/en/manitoba/news/2025/05/manitoba-rcmp-make-two-arson-arrests-following-wildfires
https://www.ecosia.org/search?method=newtab&addon=chrome&addonversion=7.1.0&q=Rowena+Fire+arson+arests
https://rosedogbookstore.com/climate-crisis-changed-the-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change-ipcc-reports-are-deliberate-science-fiction-ebook-text/
Because the high schools teach the fear mongering of the media and UN. Nothing they have said will happen has ever happened.
Trees release terpenes which induce rain.
The high school teach our published high-school textbook and the arson fires will stop.
Climate Change is about Fear mongering and removing people from the earth.
Must be artificial intelligence….nothing real about it Prof Dave White.
Good points. Trump is beginning to appear more interested in the tariff tax revenues, rather than his economically illiterate premise that it would increase U.S. manufacturing (without cost), given the significant increase in deficits and national debt that his recent bill brings on. In other words, we now face the risk that Trump, not fully understanding the deleterious impact of a trade war, but being slapped in the face by the markets after "liberation day", may shift his rhetoric to emphasize how "rich" we are becoming from the revenue (to save face).
I'm for free trade, yet theory shows that "Harberger triangles," the actual welfare losses due to tariffs because of import substitution, are small, unless tariff rates get very high.
The uncertainty could be worse than the inefficiency. This looks like a bad time for business investment. And yet It might be a bad time anyway, because of uncertainty related to AI. Should all tools now have a button to activate an AI that can explain how to use them? If we don't know whether they should, or we don't know how to do that yet, maybe we shouldn't be investing in tools until we know.
For the moment, I'm weirdly optimistic that the US economy can weather too much long-term damage.
Obviously the collapse in imports was the ostensible rationale for Trump tariffs (plus tariff revenue … which of course will now collapse along with imports … which reminds me, do gold imports bear a tariff too?) while the decline in exports was unwelcome, since the deal was supposed to make tariffs one-way (which was a silly thought). Meanwhile it’s a bit weird to scan economic data that is just about to catch up with “Liberation Day”.
Would be great to see up top, just total imports and total exports on a line graph. Do the dollar figures in these graphs depict pre-tariff or post tariff spending/receipts? (IOW spending including or not including tariff fees.) Thanks.
I would really love to hear a more detailed look on how tariffs are directly impacting the cost of living in the states themselves. So far this is of course atrocious long-term and will not achieve any of the so-called "goals" of these voodoo economic measures, but proponents can still look at the data and tell "well yeah, but USA has been ripped off all these years, now the money will flow!". Imports have fallen, but some will be present and will be paid into USA treasury. It would be great to see some data to prove that these incomes are not real incomes into the economy but instead money that will be directly taken from the public in one way or another to fill the treasury from the "tariffs"
Joey, i am wondering why tariffs have not crept into inflation data yet. Also, what happened with shipping traffic situation? The drop in imports should've translated into shortages on shelves by now.
Wait 3 months.
Well done graphics. Trump is breaking the world. He wants chaos.
Madman
Trumpoline
tRump doesn’t know the first thing about tariffs!! He is just fuckn around with this!! He’s worsening our economy!! I just wish he would leave this shit alone!! The tariffs aren’t working!! I guess he’s that stupid to believe that this shit is working!! God, he’s a dumbass!!